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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 25

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(10:06) 3-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.95 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model