4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 10 at the 10

Chicago Bears 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model