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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:08) 8-B.Pinion punts 46 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.16 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP