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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(:22) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 27-R.Jones up the middle to CHI 1 for no gain (44-A.Ogletree). FUMBLES (44-A.Ogletree), RECOVERED by CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson at CHI 2.

The Three Options

GO +4.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 1, worth +0.49 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model