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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35 – Chicago Bears 3

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 3-R.Succop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.88 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 4, worth +0.31 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT -0.20 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.94 EP