Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 84

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

(8:20) 8-B.Pinion punts 49 yards to CHI 35, Center-46-C.Tinker. 17-J.Grant to CHI 35 for no gain (28-R.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.38 EP
60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.70 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model