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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 41

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 20

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.52 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 41, worth -1.99 EP
KICK -0.23 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model