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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

CIN
39.4%
BAL
60.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BAL offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • CIN offense: +0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • QB edge to BAL: Lamar Jackson (BAL) +0.227 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.178 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

CIN 23
–
BAL 27
Projected margin: BAL by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

CIN

Tyler Shelvin DT Questionable Illness
Jalen Davis CB Questionable Ankle

BAL

Latavius Murray RB Out Ankle
Sammy Watkins WR Out Thigh
Tavon Young CB Questionable Knee
Bradley Bozeman C Questionable Back
Patrick Queen LB Questionable Thigh
Alejandro Villanueva T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 41
–
BAL 17

Prediction missed by 28 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:13 FG CIN (5:13) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – BAL 0
  • Q2 14:08 FG BAL (14:08) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 3 – BAL 3
  • Q2 06:40 TD CIN (6:40) 9-J.Burrow pass deep middle to 87-C.Uzomah for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – BAL 3
  • Q2 01:56 TD BAL (1:56) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 33-D.Freeman left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 10 – BAL 9
  • Q2 00:06 FG CIN (:06) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 13 – BAL 10
  • Q3 13:28 TD BAL (13:28) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep right to 5-M.Brown for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – BAL 16
  • Q3 11:13 TD CIN (11:13) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 87-C.Uzomah for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 19 – BAL 17
  • Q3 06:02 TD CIN (6:02) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 82 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 26 – BAL 17
  • Q4 09:32 TD CIN (9:32) 28-J.Mixon left guard for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 33 – BAL 17
  • Q4 07:07 TD CIN (7:07) 34-S.Perine left tackle for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 40 – BAL 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 10 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 57%

    (12:19) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 20 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (9:17) 4-S.Koch punts 48 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 43 for 13 yards (57-K.Welch; 16-T.Wallace).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 34%

    (7:28) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase to BAL 39 for 9 yards (22-J.Smith).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 5 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 69%

    (5:13) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:19) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to CIN 22, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 29 for 7 yards (16-T.Wallace).

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 6 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (2:41) 10-K.Huber punts 60 yards to BAL 7, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 23 for 16 yards (55-L.Wilson).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 83%

    (14:08) 9-J.Tucker 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (11:55) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to BAL 8, Center-46-C.Harris. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 29 for 21 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 13 at the 40
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 54%

    (7:13) 4-S.Koch punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 96%

    (:06) 2-E.McPherson 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 52%

    (7:34) 4-S.Koch punts 31 yards to CIN 10, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (3:49) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to CIN 15, Center-46-N.Moore. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 15 for no gain (41-A.Levine).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:30) (Shotgun) 63-T.Colon reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end to BAL 35 for 6 yards (57-G.Pratt).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (11:43) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete short left to 5-M.Brown (59-A.Davis-Gaither).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 34-T.Williams pushed ob at BAL 44 for 11 yards (37-R.Allen).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (6:22) 4-S.Koch punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:59) 10-K.Huber punts 59 yards to BAL 16, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 44 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 44%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short middle to 84-J.Oliver [92-B.Hill].

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 5 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 27%

    (:28) 34-S.Perine left end to CIN 49 for no gain (54-T.Bowser; 92-J.Madubuike).