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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 67

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 34

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 34-T.Williams pushed ob at BAL 44 for 11 yards (37-R.Allen).

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.51 EP