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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 34

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:13) 2-E.McPherson 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 34, worth -2.12 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 44, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model