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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 67

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(1:09) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.62 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 67, worth -3.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 25, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model