Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to DEN: Case Keenum (CLE) -0.126 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.225 EPA/dropback (CLE starting Case Keenum in place of Baker Mayfield)
- DEN defense: -0.014 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
- Wind 27 mph
- CLE offense: +0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- DEN offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 7
DEN
CLE
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:29 TD CLE (12:29) 30-D.Johnson left tackle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – CLE 6
- Q1 03:14 FG CLE (3:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. DEN 0 – CLE 10
- Q3 07:53 TD DEN (7:53) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 25-M.Gordon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 6 – CLE 10
- Q3 00:31 TD CLE (:31) 5-C.Keenum pass short left to 40-J.Stanton for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 7 – CLE 16
- Q4 05:23 TD DEN (5:23) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 33-J.Williams for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 13 – CLE 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DEN 4th & 1 at the 66Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EPp(convert) 73%
(10:24) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 3 yards (37-P.Locke).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%
(3:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 11%
(11:03) 7-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to DEN 10, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 13 for 3 yards (88-H.Bryant; 51-Ma.Wilson).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 3 at the 80Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EPp(convert) 58%
(8:50) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to CLE 21, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 31 for 10 yards (16-T.Cleveland).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 23Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27% p(FG) 83%
(1:56) 3-C.McLaughlin 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-S.Harris), Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DEN 4th & 8 at the 67Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(1:09) 6-S.Martin punts 47 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 25-D.Felton.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CLE 4th & 12 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:35) 7-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 30 for 13 yards (43-J.Johnson; 22-G.Delpit).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CLE 4th & 3 at the 6Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 97%
(:58) (Shotgun) 5-C.Keenum scrambles up the middle to DEN 1 for 5 yards (29-B.Callahan; 40-J.Strnad).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(14:38) 6-S.Martin punts 50 yards to CLE 22, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-27-N.Hairston.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CLE 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(11:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on CLE-4-A.Walker, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 15.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 11Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%
(6:22) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to CLE 10 for 1 yard (97-M.Jackson).
See the full breakdown →
