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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 82

Cleveland Browns 10 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(:35) 7-J.Gillan punts 65 yards to DEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 30 for 13 yards (43-J.Johnson; 22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.81 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model