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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 66

Denver Broncos 0 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to CLE 20, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 25-D.Felton to CLE 23 for 3 yards (37-P.Locke).

The Three Options

GO -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.24 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP