Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 17 – Denver Broncos 7

What Actually Happened

(11:32) 7-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer. PENALTY on CLE-4-A.Walker, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.34 EP
59% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model