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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 7 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 3-C.McLaughlin 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.54 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.32 EP
KICK +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 56% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model