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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 62

Detroit Lions 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(7:18) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to LA 26, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-13-G.Allison.

The Three Options

GO -0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.76 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.33 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -1.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP