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Detroit Lions

0-7 HC Dan Campbell
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Los Angeles Rams

6-1 HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 16:05 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 17.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

DET
20.1%
LA
79.9%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to LA: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.405 vs Jared Goff (DET) -0.078 EPA/dropback
  • DET offense: -0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.177 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.192 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • LA defense: +0.010 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DET 19 12–26
–
LA 31 24–38
Projected margin: LA by 12 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

DET

Jason Cabinda RB Questionable Hip
Trey Flowers LB Questionable Knee
T.J. Hockenson TE Questionable Knee
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin

LA

Sony Michel RB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 19
–
LA 28

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:21 TD DET (12:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 32-D.Swift for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – LA 0
  • Q1 07:32 FG DET (7:32) 4-A.Seibert 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 10 – LA 0
  • Q1 02:59 FG LA (2:59) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. DET 10 – LA 3
  • Q2 13:45 FG DET (13:45) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 08:41 TD LA (8:41) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 12-V.Jefferson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – LA 9
  • Q2 01:26 TD LA (1:26) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 13 – LA 16
  • Q2 00:09 FG DET (:09) 4-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 16 – LA 17
  • Q3 01:47 FG DET (1:47) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 19 – LA 17
  • Q4 14:04 TD LA (14:04) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – LA 23
  • Q4 01:03 FG LA (1:03) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. DET 19 – LA 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 34%

    (11:01) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short left to 27-B.Price pushed ob at LA 33 for 17 yards (33-N.Scott).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 8 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 93%

    (7:32) 4-A.Seibert 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LA 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 95%

    (2:59) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 82%

    (13:45) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 62
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (7:18) 3-J.Fox punts 36 yards to LA 26, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-13-G.Allison.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 15 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%

    (:09) 4-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 17 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (12:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to DET 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:02) (Punt formation) 38-C.Moore left end pushed ob at LA 37 for 28 yards (18-B.Skowronek).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 93%

    (6:19) (No Huddle) 32-D.Swift up the middle to LA 18 for no gain (41-K.Young; 26-T.Burgess).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 46
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 74% p(FG) 44%

    (4:00) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee (99-J.Okwara).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DET 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (1:47) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 82%

    (1:03) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

    See the full breakdown →