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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 23

Detroit Lions 13 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 4-A.Seibert 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.52 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 23, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 33, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model