Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 17 at the 62

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 16

(12:35) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to DET 21, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.12 EP
69% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 62, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model