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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 46

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Detroit Lions 16

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short left to 89-T.Higbee (99-J.Okwara).

The Three Options

GO +1.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.10 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.27 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model