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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 50

Detroit Lions 7 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(11:01) (Punt formation) 3-J.Fox pass short left to 27-B.Price pushed ob at LA 33 for 17 yards (33-N.Scott).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.84 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 50, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 14, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model