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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 4 at the 15

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.26 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 15, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +2.14 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model