4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Houston Texans 5

What Actually Happened

(10:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to HOU 10 for 13 yards (1-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.59 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model