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Houston Texans

HC David Culley
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2021-10-24 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread 20.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

HOU
15.0%
ARI
85.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • HOU offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.295 vs Davis Mills (HOU) -0.138 EPA/dropback
  • ARI offense: +0.164 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.135 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

HOU 16
–
ARI 31
Projected margin: ARI by 15 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 7

HOU

Jaleel Johnson DT Out Back
Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Justin Britt C Questionable Knee
Nico Collins WR Questionable Foot
Chris Conley WR Questionable Neck

ARI

Darrell Daniels TE Out Hamstring
Rashard Lawrence DT Out Calf
Jordan Hicks LB Questionable Toe
Devon Kennard LB Questionable Shoulder
Tanner Vallejo LB Questionable Hand

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 5
–
ARI 31

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:06 SAF HOU (3:06) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end tackled in End Zone for -2 yards, SAFETY (54-J.Martin). HOU 2 – ARI 0
  • Q2 15:00 FG HOU (15:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. HOU 5 – ARI 0
  • Q2 09:05 TD ARI (9:05) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 10-D.Hopkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 5 – ARI 6
  • Q2 02:51 TD ARI (2:51) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 5 – ARI 13
  • Q2 00:09 FG ARI (:09) 5-M.Prater 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. HOU 5 – ARI 17
  • Q3 08:08 TD ARI (8:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep middle to 86-Z.Ertz for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 5 – ARI 23
  • Q4 10:29 TD ARI (10:29) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 5 – ARI 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (12:51) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to HOU 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to HOU 27 for 14 yards (31-C.Banjo).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 16 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:10) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-R.Moore ran ob at ARI 44 for 13 yards (20-Ju.Reid).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 17 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 44%

    (3:19) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to ARI 2, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-32-G.Wallow.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

    (15:00) 7-K.Fairbairn 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 23
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 89%

    (10:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 13-C.Kirk to HOU 10 for 13 yards (1-L.Johnson).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:43) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to ARI 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 29 for 21 yards (28-R.Burkhead). PENALTY on ARI-29-J.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 22.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (6:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 49%

    (2:27) 11-C.Johnston punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:49) 14-A.Lee punts 43 yards to HOU 41, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to ARI 42 for 17 yards (84-D.Harris, 33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 13-B.Cooks.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:14) 11-C.Johnston punts 69 yards to ARI 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-51-K.Grugier-Hill.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 5 at the 70 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:48) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to HOU 21 for no gain (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 32%

    (3:01) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short left to 89-D.Amendola.