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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 62

Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 11-C.Johnston punts 54 yards to ARI 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-R.Moore pushed ob at ARI 29 for 21 yards (28-R.Burkhead). PENALTY on ARI-29-J.Ward, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.59 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model