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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 67

Houston Texans 5 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 11-C.Johnston punts 43 yards to ARI 24, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-57-K.Pierre-Louis.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 25, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP