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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 79

Houston Texans 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 11-C.Johnston punts 48 yards to ARI 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 4-R.Moore ran ob at ARI 44 for 13 yards (20-Ju.Reid).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.14 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 79, worth -4.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 36, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model