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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 31 – Houston Texans 5

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to HOU 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 25-D.King to HOU 21 for no gain (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 70, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 28, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model