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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 16

Tennessee Titans 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 16, worth -0.85 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model