Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- KC offense: +0.205 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.288 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TEN offense: +0.077 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
- KC defense: +0.183 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- TEN defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
KC
TEN
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 26 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:55 TD TEN (10:55) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 22-D.Henry. 22-D.Henry pass short right to 85-M.Pruitt for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – TEN 6
- Q1 00:48 TD TEN (:48) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – TEN 13
- Q2 08:11 FG TEN (8:11) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. KC 0 – TEN 17
- Q2 02:53 TD TEN (2:53) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill scrambles right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 0 – TEN 23
- Q2 00:08 FG TEN (:08) 14-R.Bullock 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. KC 0 – TEN 27
- Q3 11:05 FG KC (11:05) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 3 – TEN 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 KC 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(6:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to TEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-26-C.Lammons.
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Q2 KC 4th & 11 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(14:52) 5-T.Townsend punts 41 yards to TEN 24, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 12-M.Kinsey.
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Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%
(8:11) 14-R.Bullock 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.
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Q3 KC 4th & 9 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%
(11:05) 7-H.Butker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 27%
(13:37) 6-B.Kern punts 45 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.
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Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 42%
(9:34) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass deep middle to 13-B.Pringle to TEN 17 for 25 yards (21-M.Farley; 24-E.Molden).
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Q4 KC 4th & 18 at the 25Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%
(8:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (sack split by 98-J.Simmons and 96-D.Autry). FUMBLES (98-J.Simmons), RECOVERED by TEN-51-D.Long at TEN 38. 51-D.Long to TEN 46 for 8 yards (62-J.Thuney). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes sacked at TEN 33 for -8 yards (96-D.Autry). KC-15-P.Mahomes was injured during the play.
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Q4 TEN 4th & 7 at the 52 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 19%
(4:34) 6-B.Kern punts 49 yards to KC 3, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.
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Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 80 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(2:50) (Shotgun) 4-C.Henne pass short right to 10-T.Hill to KC 37 for 17 yards (23-C.Jones) [92-O.Adeniyi].