Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 55

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

(6:26) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to TEN 3, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-26-C.Lammons.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.77 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -3.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model