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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 65

Seattle Seahawks 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 23, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP