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New Orleans Saints

4-2 HC Sean Payton
@
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Seattle Seahawks

2-5 HC Pete Carroll
Monday 2021-10-25 · 20:15 ET Lumen Field, Seattle US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

NO
60.5%
SEA
39.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to NO: Geno Smith (SEA) -0.076 vs Jameis Winston (NO) +0.170 EPA/dropback
  • SEA defense: +0.112 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • NO on 7 more days rest than SEA
  • SEA offense: +0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Wind 16 mph

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NO 22 15–29
–
SEA 21 14–28
Projected margin: NO by 1 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

NO

Deonte Harty WR Out Hamstring
Taysom Hill QB Out Concussion
Payton Turner DE Out Calf
Dwayne Washington RB Out Neck

SEA

John Reid CB Questionable Knee
Alex Collins RB Questionable Groin
Damien Lewis G Questionable Shoulder
Darrell Taylor DE Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
SEA 10

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:22 TD SEA (10:22) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 14-D.Metcalf for 84 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – SEA 6
  • Q2 04:27 FG NO (4:27) 6-B.Johnson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 3 – SEA 7
  • Q2 00:47 TD NO (:47) (Shotgun) 2-J.Winston to SEA 18 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at SEA 18. 2-J.Winston pass short right to 41-A.Kamara for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – SEA 7
  • Q3 00:18 FG SEA (:18) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. NO 10 – SEA 10
  • Q4 02:00 FG NO (2:00) 6-B.Johnson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin. NO 13 – SEA 10

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 65 yards to end zone, Center-69-T.Ott, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (11:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 16 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.93 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 41%

    (6:05) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to SEA 1, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-17-K.White.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 51 yards to NO 18, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-M.Callaway to NO 20 for 2 yards (44-N.Bellore).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NO 4th & 12 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:29) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to SEA 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 35%

    (14:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to NO 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 33%

    (10:33) 2-J.Winston up the middle to SEA 44 for 1 yard (98-A.Robinson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 60%

    (8:15) 2-J.Winston up the middle to SEA 33 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NO 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (4:27) 6-B.Johnson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SEA 4th & 9 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to NO 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 2 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:37) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 81%

    (8:48) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NO 4th & 13 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:41) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to SEA 16, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 1 at the 65
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.15 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:42) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to NO 15, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SEA 4th & 10 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (:18) 5-J.Myers 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (12:32) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to SEA 9, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 20 for 11 yards (48-J.Gray).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NO 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 6-B.Johnson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →