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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 35

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 2-J.Winston up the middle to SEA 33 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.52 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 35, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.02 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 45, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model