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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 2

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 6-B.Johnson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 2, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP