4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(2:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 44 yards to NO 15, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.13 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -2.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model