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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 60

New Orleans Saints 10 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 4-B.Gillikin punts 48 yards to SEA 12, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.24 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP