4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 26

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-J.Myers 44 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.71 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 36, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model