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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 66

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(11:09) 4-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to SEA 8, Center-49-Z.Wood. 18-F.Swain pushed ob at SEA 16 for 8 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.70 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model