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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 15

New Orleans Saints 10 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-B.Johnson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.14 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model