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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 4-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to SEA 41, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -2.83 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 82, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model