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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 44

Seattle Seahawks 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(14:45) 4-M.Dickson punts 32 yards to NO 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-M.Callaway.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.93 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model