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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 16

Green Bay Packers 7 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-T.Settle), Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez, recovered by GB-81-J.Deguara at WAS 28.

The Three Options

GO +1.47 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model