Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
- WAS defense: +0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- Aaron Rodgers (GB): +0.142 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- GB defense: +0.052 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (19th in the league)
- WAS offense: -0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
WAS
GB
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:20 TD GB (7:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – GB 6
- Q1 02:33 TD WAS (2:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass deep middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – GB 7
- Q2 00:19 TD GB (:19) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 13-A.Lazard for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-Jon.Allen]. WAS 7 – GB 13
- Q3 12:35 TD GB (12:35) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass deep right to 85-R.Tonyan for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 7 – GB 20
- Q4 11:26 FG GB (11:26) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. WAS 7 – GB 24
- Q4 02:30 FG WAS (2:30) 12-C.Blewitt 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 10 – GB 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 17Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%
(7:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 86%
(11:26) 12-C.Blewitt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Slaton), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
-
Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%
(5:24) 2-M.Crosby 34 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-T.Settle), Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez, recovered by GB-81-J.Deguara at WAS 28.
-
Q2 WAS 4th & 3 at the 27Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50% p(FG) 81%
(3:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short left to 17-T.McLaurin (21-E.Stokes).
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%
(5:57) 4-T.Heinicke up the middle to GB 1 for no gain (59-D.Campbell). FUMBLES (59-D.Campbell), and recovers at GB 1. 4-T.Heinicke to GB 1 for no gain (52-R.Gary). Washington challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:52.)
-
Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 94Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 54%
(4:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to WAS 41, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.
-
Q3 WAS 4th & 2 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%
(1:08) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 83-R.Seals-Jones (31-A.Amos). Yard marker changed due to change of possession
-
Q4 GB 4th & 20 at the 21Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 89%
(11:26) 2-M.Crosby 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
-
Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 40 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EPp(convert) 34% p(FG) 50%
(2:11) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to WAS 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom.
-
Q4 WAS 4th & 14 at the 76 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 31%
(:29) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke scrambles right end pushed ob at WAS 40 for 16 yards (29-R.Douglas). GB-29-R.Douglas was injured during the play.