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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 94

Green Bay Packers 21 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(4:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 53 yards to WAS 41, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 94, worth -5.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

PUNT -2.49 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 52, worth -2.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model