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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:20) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 17-D.Adams for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.28 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.27 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model