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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 24 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(2:11) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 37 yards to WAS 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.84 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.13 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.09 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -1.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP