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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 24

Washington Commanders 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 12-C.Blewitt 42 yard field goal is BLOCKED (93-T.Slaton), Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model