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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 45

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to CAR 44 for 1 yard (7-S.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.20 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model